The Week in Review: Market Commentary from Cabana’s CEO – April 15, 2019
Below is a snapshot of last week’s market performance and what to watch in the weeks ahead from Chadd Mason, Cabana CEO and co-founder.
Earnings season has kicked off, and 79% of companies reporting have beaten estimates. Financials are leading so far. The Financial Select SPDR® (XLF) had a big up day on Friday, in response to reports from J.P. Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America. A jump in yields is also providing a lift to bank shares. Banks do better in a rising-rate environment, and that is why the yield curve spread is so important. For banks to make money on loans, they have to be able to borrow at lower rates than the rates that they get for their loans to customers. The jump in rates and the buying in financial stocks is somewhat of a “chicken or egg” situation. It’s hard to know whether the bounce in rates as a result of strong earnings is lifting the bank stocks, or if the rise in bank stocks is causing interest rates to rise. Either way, it is a good thing when banks take the lead. Analysts are predicting earnings overall to grow by 8% this year. It is not the 20% growth we saw in 2017-2018, but it is not bad either.
Another bit of good news is that Germany's stock market just cleared its own 200-day moving average. That is a big positive out of Europe's most important market. If we can get Europe out of the doldrums and in step with the U.S. and China, we have a good chance of another leg up in the world equity markets this year. Commodities continue to benefit from the China growth story. China is the largest importer of commodities worldwide. If these trends continue, we should see interest rates continue to rise, which will allow the yield curve to return to a normal shape whereby long-term rates are higher than short-term rates. As stated above, this is good for banks and the economy.
The next test of the U.S. markets’ uptrend will be the S&P 500’s September 2018 high of 2,940. It broke through 2,900 on Friday, so we are getting close. I suspect we will reach that point this month.
Earnings statistics are from VectorVest.com.
A PDF of this week's market commentary is available here:
This material is prepared by Cabana, LLC(d/b/a “Cabana Asset Management” & “Cabana Retirement Solutions”) and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.
This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.
Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV, Part 2. A copy of which is available upon request or online at https://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/.
Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor Magazine. RIAs were ranked based on percentage growth in year-end 2017 AUM over year-end 2016 AUM with a minimum AUM of $250 million, assets per client, and growth in percentage assets per client. Visit www.fa-mag.com information regarding the ranking.